This is a summary of my academic research which aimed to show whether the success of Steam Games can be evaluated before their release, without knowing anything about their reception. The idea was to evaluate a concept rather than a nearly-finished or even a released game.
One could probably get very nice predictions of a game’s sales after several days or weeks following its release and looking at YouTube, Twitch, reviews, social etc. But I wanted to know whether it’s possible to estimate a game’s potential early on, making it possible to e.g. suggest changes during development which would make the final product more successful.